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CHINA ECONOMY THE REAL PROBLEM IS ?

CHINA ECONOMY THE REAL PROBLEM IS ?

@Jackie San

"If Chinese savings remain at their current level (over 40% of GDP), but investment falls to 30% of GDP, China would have to maintain a current-account surplus of ten percentage points of GDP to keep its economy in equilibrium. At nearly $2 trillion, that would be enough to affect the global savings/investment balance".

MILAN – China’s ongoing economic slowdown has elicited a variety of explanations. But forecasts largely have one thing in common: while the short-term data are somewhat volatile – annual growth rates have been distorted by the legacy of the authorities’ draconian zero-COVID policy – most observers expect Chinese GDP growth to continue trending downward. The International Monetary Fund, for example, expects growth to reach just 4.5% in 2024 and fall to 3% by the end of this decade – better than most advanced economies, but a far cry from the double-digit rates of a decade ago. Yet growth is only part of the story.

Of course, the focus on it is understandable. For decades, China has accounted for a significant share of global GDP growth. Moreover, the size of China’s economy – a key determinant of its ability to continue expanding its military capabilities – will shape the evolution of the balance of power with its main rival, the United States. But growth is not the only – and probably not even the main – channel through which the Chinese economy affects the rest of the world. The balance of savings and investment also matters, perhaps even more.

One of the Chinese economy’s distinguishing characteristics is its extraordinarily high investment and savings rates, which exceed 40% of GDP. This is double the level in the European Union and the US, and higher even than the rate in Asia’s other high-savings countries, such as Japan and South Korea.

Investment – particularly in high-quality infrastructure – has been integral to maintaining China’s rapid GDP growth. China built the world’s largest high-speed rail network in record time. Today, even medium-size cities have metro lines, and China’s numerous shiny new airports put the aging terminals seen in the US and Europe to shame.

But, as Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff has pointed out, such investment generates diminishing returns. This is best illustrated by the construction sector’s woes. Over the last decade, so much housing has been built in China that about 40 square meters (430 square feet) per person already exists – about as much as in Germany or Japan. In other words, China has built the capital stock of a developed economy, effectively meeting housing demand – before reaching the associated income level.

This severely limits investment’s potential to drive further increases in income. At this point, further housing construction would simply create more ghost cities – shiny, new, and empty. And because the additional housing stock – and infrastructure more broadly – has a long life span, this will not change significantly any time soon.

To be sure, China’s government will probably be able to find new ways to support the construction sector, including by finding infrastructure projects that can at least be made to appear worthwhile – for example, in the poorer and rural inland provinces. But, overall, investment can be expected to decline gradually from now on.

Japan faced a similar problem a few decades ago. After its real-estate bubble burst in the late 1980s, the government attempted to lift the economy out of a severe downturn by channeling vast funds toward infrastructure investment. But most of the new roads led to nowhere, so after a few years of heavy spending, the government had to give up.

In China, the response to lower investment might seem simple: the Chinese could consume more. But recall that China’s savings ratio is also extraordinarily high, and has remained so despite the authorities’ efforts over the last decade to foster domestic consumption as a driver of growth. A significant rise is thus unlikely in theforeseeable future.

Beyond consumption, China could channel savings toward investment in renewable energy sources like solar and wind. But with such investment already approaching $300 billion annually – far more than in the US or Europe – the ability of renewables to absorb Chinese savings is limited.

Amid declining investment, China’s high savings spill out into the rest of world via current-account surpluses. In China, these surpluses are even larger than those of other countries with excess savings, like Germany or Japan, because of the magnitude of the potential excess and the sheer size of the economy.

If savings remain at their current level (over 40% of GDP), but investment falls to 30% of GDP – still a very high ratio – China would have to maintain a current-account surplus of ten percentage points of GDP to keep the economy in equilibrium. With China’s GDP set to reach $20 trillion soon, this would amount to nearly $2 trillion. That is several times larger than the previous surpluses of Germany or Japan, and large enough to affect the global savings/investment balance.

One spillover effect of China’s savings surplus – downward pressure on interest rates – would be relatively benign. But another, bigger dangers looms: large Chinese current-account surpluses would fuel an already-accelerating trend toward protecting domestic industries against Chinese competition.

This does not have to be the case. With their investments in technologies like batteries, solar panels, and electric vehicles, Chinese exporters are on track to gain an ever-greater advantage in capital-intensive green industries. Europe and the US could welcome cheap green imports as a means of reducing the costs of their own climate policies. But this seems unlikely in today’s climate of geopolitical confrontation. Instead, we can look forward to more protectionist policies, which will increase costs and do nothing to reduce Chinese savings.

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MEETS CHINA'S XI TO FIND WAYS TO REDUCE SOUTH CHINA SEA TENSIONS - PHILIPPINES' MARCOS

MEETS CHINA'S XI TO FIND WAYS TO REDUCE SOUTH CHINA SEA TENSIONS - PHILIPPINES' MARCOS 

@Jackie San

MANILA, November 18, 2023...

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday, seeking ways to reduce tensions in the South China Sea and restore Filipino fishermen's access to fishing grounds.

The Philippines and China need to continue to communicate, with the meeting a key part of the process to maintain peace, and keep open sea lanes and airways over the South China Sea, Marcos told reporters on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco.

"We tried to come up with mechanisms to lower the tensions in the South China Sea," Marcos said, without elaborating.

Marcos said he voiced concern over incidents between Chinese and Philippine vessels, including one collision. He said he also raised the plight of Filipino fishermen.

"I asked that we go back to the situation where both Chinese and Filipino fishermen were fishing together in these waters," he said.

Filipino fishermen have complained that Chinese coastguard and maritime militia ships are preventing them from fishing in parts of the Philippines' 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

Marcos said he and Xi were in agreement that geopolitical problems should not be the defining element of the two countries' relationship.

Since taking office in 2022, Marcos has pursued warmer ties with the United States, a treaty ally, in contrast with the pro-Beijing stance of his predecessor.

Marcos granted the United States greater access to its military bases, including in provinces facing the South China Sea and democratically ruled Taiwan, drawing the ire of Beijing.

Tensions in the region, where China has built man-made islands with missiles and airstrips, have increased this year.

"I do not think anybody wants to go to war," Marcos said.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, ignoring a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated Beijing's expansive claim.

China's embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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WHAT CHINA'S XI GAINED FROM HIS BIDEN MEETING ?

WHAT CHINA'S XI GAINED FROM HIS BIDEN MEETING?

@Jackie San

SAN FRANCISCO/HONG KONG, November 16, 2023 - When Chinese President Xi Jinping met executives for dinner on Wednesday night in San Francisco, he was greeted with not one, but three standing ovations from the U.S. business community.

It was one of several public relations wins for the Chinese leader on his first trip in six years to the United States, where he and President Joe Biden reached agreements covering fentanyl, military communications and artificial intelligence on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

ll three were outcomes the United States had sought from China rather than the other way around, said two people briefed on the trip.

But Xi appeared to have achieved his own aims: earning U.S. policy concessions in exchange for promises of cooperation, an easing of bilateral tensions that will allow more focus on economic growth, and a chance to woo foreign investors who increasingly shun China.

"We invite friends from business communities across the world to invest and deepen your footprint in China," he said at an APEC CEO summit, promising action on the list of items that irk foreign investors, from intellectual property theft to data security.

China's economy is slowing and earlier this month it reported its first quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment. And the ruling Communist Party has battled political intrigues that have raised questions about Xi's decision-making, including the sudden and unexplained removals of his foreign minister and defense minister.

"If the U.S. and China can manage their differences ... it will mean that Xi Jinping doesn't have to divert all of his attention to that (bilateral relations)," said Alexander Neill, an adjunct fellow at Hawaii's Pacific Forum think-tank.

"He needs to focus on his domestic agenda, which is incredibly pressing."

DROPPING SANCTIONS FOR COOPERATION

Securing Xi's promise of Chinese cooperation on stemming the flow of fentanyl to the United States was high on Biden's to-do list for the summit. A senior U.S. official said the agreement under which China would go after specific companies that produce fentanyl precursors was made on a "trust but verify" basis.

In return, the U.S. government on Thursday removed a Chinese public security forensic institute from a Commerce Department trade sanction list, where it was placed in 2020 over alleged abuses against Uyghurs, a long-sought diplomatic aim for China.

Critics warned removing sanctions against the institute signals to Beijing that U.S. entity listings are negotiable, and have questioned the Biden administration's commitment to pressuring China over what it says is the Chinese government's genocide of Uyghurs.

"This undermines the credibility of our entity list and our moral authority," said a spokesperson for the Republican-led House of Representative's select committee on China.

On top of that, Biden's Republican opponents argue the U.S. is missing an opportunity by not leveraging China's flagging economic momentum for more diplomatic gains.

Biden also touted as a success an agreement to resume military dialogues cut by China following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's 2022 trip to Chinese-claimed Taiwan.

But while Beijing would welcome lower tensions, this is unlikely to change Chinese military behavior the U.S. sees as dangerous, such as intercepts of U.S. ships and aircraft in international waters that have led to a number of near-misses.

"China fears hotlines could be used as a potential pretext for a U.S. presence in areas it claims as its own," said Craig Singleton, a China expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

Biden administration officials have acknowledged that creating functional military relations won't be as easy as semi-regular meetings between defense officials.

"This is a long, hard, slow slog and the Chinese have to see value in that mil-mil before they'll do it. That's not going to be a favor to us," one senior Biden administration told Reuters in October in the run-up to the Xi-Biden meeting.

PARTNER AND FRIEND?

In his public remarks to Biden, Xi suggested China sought peaceful coexistence with the United States, and he told business leaders China was ready to be a "partner and friend" to the U.S., words partially aimed at a business community alarmed by China's crackdown on various industries and the use of exit bans and detentions against some executives.

Similarly, Xi's televised garden walk with Biden, and the largely respectful reception given to Xi by his American hosts, was highlighted in China's tightly controlled media to show a domestic audience that their president is managing the country's most important economic and political relationship.

"Xi Jinping may have made the calculation that overhyping the American threat does China and his standing in the party and the party itself more harm than good," said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official who is now a scholar at the National University of Singapore.

"The fact that we are debating whether China is investible is a real problem for China."

At the same time, Xi reiterated to Biden points that he made earlier this year to Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging the U.S. president to view U.S.-China relations through "accelerating global transformations unseen in a century."

Analysts say that is code for the belief that China - and Russia - are remolding the U.S.-led international system.

Still, this time pragmatism may have outweighed ideology.

China recognizes it's still necessary for its economic progress to have somewhat normal relations with the U.S. and Western countries, said Li Mingjiang, a professor at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"It's the fundamental driving force behind the meeting."

Reporting by Michael Martina and Greg Torode; Additional reporting by Antoni Slodkowski and Laurie Chen in Beijing; Editing by Don Durfee and Tom Hogue.

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